On Tuesday, just before the U.S. government shutdown took effect, the Bureau of Labor Statistics managed to publish the JOLTS report. Had the release been scheduled for today, it would not have come out due to the suspension of government operations. For the same reason, it is now likely that the September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will not be published on Friday—unless lawmakers pass an interim funding bill, which seems extremely unlikely at this point, given the deep divide between the political parties.
Democrats are insisting on preserving subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans firmly oppose the idea. This has resulted in a stalemate in Congress. The Senate cannot approve the budget without votes from the other camp—Republicans currently hold only 53 seats, while 60 are needed, and one Republican senator has already withdrawn support.
In practical terms, this means that the key macroeconomic report, NFP, will likely be postponed. But for how long is anyone's guess. The longest U.S. government shutdown lasted 35 days, and that too happened during Trump's first term. Many analysts warn that this current 2025 shutdown could exceed that record due to entrenched political positions, threats of real federal layoffs, and a serious standoff over healthcare funding.
As a result, this month, traders will likely have to make decisions on the EUR/USD amid a data drought. That's precisely why the JOLTS and ADP reports, released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, have taken on special significance. Usually, these indicators act as secondary data points that precede the NFP. Now, they have become the market's only window into the state of the U.S. labor market.
Let's start with the JOLTS report, which measures the number of private-sector job openings as of the end of August. On the surface, the report looked positive. After two consecutive months of decline, job openings rose from 7.21 million in July to 7.23 million in August, slightly exceeding expectations. However, the deeper reading paints a gloomier picture. For example, the number of new hires fell by 114,000 to 5.126 million, suggesting weakening demand for labor. Voluntary quit numbers dropped to 3.1 million—a low not seen in the past eight months. While this might initially seem positive (fewer workers quitting), in economic terms, it usually indicates growing uncertainty. When workers feel confident that they can change jobs easily for better pay or conditions, quit rates tend to rise. When they fall, it suggests people are clinging to the jobs they have, afraid they won't find anything better.
The ADP report added further downside pressure to the dollar, providing a consistent negative narrative alongside the JOLTS report. For the first time in four years, ADP recorded job losses. According to their estimates, the number of private-sector jobs decreased by 32,000 in September—the weakest performance since December 2020. Most analysts had expected a modest increase of around 50,000 jobs. Moreover, ADP revised August's numbers lower—from 54,000 to -3,000. Not only is hiring slowing, but firms are now starting to lay off workers. This trend was also evident in the breakdown by company size: large enterprises continued to add staff, while small and mid-sized firms showed clear declines. The downward revision of August data suggests that the weakness is not an anomaly—it's part of a trend.
Normally, ADP results don't correlate directly with NFP. However, with the U.S. government shut down and the Bureau of Labor Statistics on pause, this month's NFP will be delayed indefinitely. That makes ADP one of the few, albeit partial, sources of labor market insight for now, even though it excludes public sector jobs and the agricultural sector.
Following the release of the JOLTS and ADP data, EUR/USD jumped to a weekly high of 1.1779. However, bulls were unable to maintain the upside after the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI report.
Although the ISM index slightly beat expectations at 49.1 (vs. a forecast of 49.0 and the previous reading of 48.7), the report was mixed overall. The index has now increased for two straight months, which on the surface reflects a recovery. Still, it remains well below the 50-point threshold, signaling continued contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector since March. Furthermore, other components of the report failed to inspire confidence. The price-paid index—a proxy for inflation—fell from 63.7 to 61.9. Meanwhile, the new orders index dropped sharply from 51.4 to 48.9.
So, even though the headline ISM number had a "green" print, it's likely to give the dollar only a reprieve.
In this context, EUR/USD maintains its bullish potential. But opening new long positions is only advisable after a confirmed breakout above a key resistance zone at 1.1740. This level coincides with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart and the Tenkan-sen & Kijun-sen lines from the Ichimoku indicator.
Bulls have tested this level for three consecutive days, but each time the price has bounced back toward the lower 1.17 region. A decisive close above resistance would open the door to higher targets—namely, 1.1800 (upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the H4 chart) and 1.1850 (upper Bollinger Band on the Daily timeframe).
