The pound has been actively rising against the dollar for the second consecutive week, reflecting the overall weakness of the American currency. Last week, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 30th figure and is now approaching the resistance level at 1.3200 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on H4 and, simultaneously, the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same time frame).

The dollar reacted weakly to the news that U.S. senators had preliminarily agreed to adopt a temporary budget, thus ending the shutdown. After a minor decline (only 30 pips), the GBP/USD pair reversed sharply and hit its one-and-a-half-week high at 1.3190. The dollar did not benefit from the situation, as key official labor market data and other macroeconomic indicators that were delayed by the federal agency work stoppage will be released after the shutdown ends. Judging by several indirect signs, the September/October Non-Farm Payrolls are likely to reflect further cooling in the U.S. labor market, increasing the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the interest rate again by 25 basis points in December.

However, the further growth of GBP/USD is in great question. This is because, in the coming days, important macroeconomic indicators will be released in the UK, which could push the pair lower, even amid the greenback's overall weakness.

It is also worth noting that the Bank of England's last meeting, held last week, did not favor the British currency. The central bank kept the interest rate unchanged, but this decision was "hanging by a thread": 4 out of 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate cut. The decisive vote was cast by the BoE's governor, Andrew Bailey, who voted to maintain the status quo. The central bank also lowered its inflation growth forecast for Q4 of the current year (from 3.6% to 3.5%) and predicted worsening labor-market conditions – according to updated forecasts, unemployment is expected to peak at 5.1% in Q2 of 2026.

Given the increasing "dovish" sentiments among the committee members, the already significant macroeconomic reports take on special importance. If the upcoming releases are in the "red zone," the probability of a rate cut at the December meeting will rise, and the pound will again be under pressure. Conversely, strong reports will strengthen the GBP/USD buyers' positions.

On Tuesday, November 11, we will learn key labor market data for the UK. According to preliminary forecasts, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.9%, up from 4.8% the previous month. This is the highest value since March 2021. The number of claims for unemployment benefits is expected to rise by 20,000 in October. In September, this figure came out nearly at the same level (+25.8 thousand), updating a 13-month record. The inflation indicator (average wage level excluding bonuses) is expected to decrease to 4.6%, the lowest level since June 2022.

However, the main "test" for the pound will occur the following day (on Thursday, November 13), when data on British economic growth for September and (most importantly) Q3 will be published. Most experts expect that the UK economy will show zero growth on a monthly basis in September. Quarterly growth is expected to be weak, only 0.1%. Regarding Q3 results, weak dynamics are also expected – 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year.

As we can see, the forecasts are quite weak, even discouraging. Therefore, if the reports come out at the projected levels, the pound may experience underlying pressure. But if the releases (especially GDP growth data) end up in the "red zone," the pound may find itself in a "knockdown," even amid a weakening greenback. In such a case, the balance would tip firmly toward a "dovish" scenario, suggesting a reduction in the BoE's interest rate at the December meeting.

Therefore, further (sustainable) growth of GBP/USD is under threat. At this point, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see stance on the pair, at least until the UK labor market data is published.

From a technical perspective, the pair is positioned between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, between the Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines, and under the Kumo cloud. On the four-hour chart, the pair is within the Kumo cloud. This means there are no clear technical signals. In conditions of such uncertainty, it would be prudent to stay out of the market.