EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair stood still. Once again, we are observing a situation where the price rises (often strongly) for some time and then just waits. It waits for further growth, news from Donald Trump that could be used to justify renewed dollar selling, developments related to the trade war, or new weak data from across the ocean. Any news that hints at selling the dollar is considered suitable. Even the sensational topic of Jerome Powell's dismissal, which has no relation to reality, fits this narrative.

Let's be clear: Donald Trump cannot fire Powell. Any news about Trump's dissatisfaction, desire to fire Powell, or search for a replacement is nothing more than hype. Trump could just as easily have started looking for a replacement during his first presidential term. However, the market happily reacts to such stories because they offer a seemingly logical reason to sell the dollar again. The narrative goes that a new Fed Chair will follow instructions from the White House and quickly cut interest rates to their lowest levels. Will that actually happen? No one knows. After all, Powell was appointed by Trump — not without some calculation.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the price was flat on Friday, but this time, it continuously reacted to key levels — quite precisely. Therefore, traders had plenty of opportunities to open trades throughout the day. Most of these trades brought neither profit nor loss, as the price moved exclusively sideways.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 24. As clearly shown in the illustration above, the net position of non-commercial traders had been "bullish" for a long time. Bears barely gained the upper hand by the end of 2024 but quickly lost that advantage. Since Trump assumed the presidency, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline will continue, but current global developments suggest that it may very well do so.

We still see no fundamental reasons for the euro to strengthen — but there is one strong reason for the dollar to fall. The global downtrend remains in place. But at this point, does it matter where the price moved over the past 16 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar might begin to recover — but will Trump ever end them? And when?

Currently, the red and blue lines have crossed again, which means the market trend has once again turned bullish. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group increased by 3,000 contracts, while the number of short positions decreased by 6,600. As a result, the net position increased by 9,600 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues forming a new upward trend with almost no pullbacks. A flood of information continues to pour in from the U.S. — information that practically forces traders to get rid of the dollar. This information now concerns not only the economy but also the future of the United States. The dollar has been falling for five consecutive months, losing 1,500 points during that time. We can't even remember the last time the dollar dropped this much.

Key Trading Levels for June 30: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750, 1.1805, 1.1846–1.1857, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1544) and Kijun-sen line (1.1663). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss at breakeven once the price moves 15 points in the desired direction — this protects against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

In the Eurozone, German retail sales and inflation data will be released. In the evening, another speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled. We do not expect a strong market reaction to the German reports, as Lagarde has already spoken three times last week without touching on monetary policy. In the United States, there are no important events on the calendar today.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
• Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.