empty
13.06.2025 11:49 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on June 13, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 1.3520 level, surged to the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620, bounced off it twice, and then fell back to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3527. A rebound from this level will again support the pound and suggest further growth toward the 1.3611–1.3620 level. A close below 1.3527 would increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3444.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern clearly indicates a continuing "bullish" trend. The last upward wave broke above the previous wave's peak, and the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Bulls will have a hard time pushing for further gains without new negative news for the dollar, but the U.S. president remains ready to raise tariffs, confront immigration, and pressure China and other countries facing tariffs. Thus, bulls have reason to stay active — but they need new catalysts. The "bullish" trend will be considered invalidated only after a close below 1.3455.

On Thursday, bears received long-awaited support from an unexpected direction. The conflict between Iran and Israel reignited after Israel launched strikes on nuclear and military facilities. Israel expects retaliation and has declared a state of emergency. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Iran possesses enough enriched uranium to build several nuclear bombs within days. Therefore, Israel felt compelled, for national security reasons and in the face of ongoing hostilities, to launch a preemptive strike.

The U.S. also supports limiting Iran's nuclear capabilities, fearing potential escalation. While nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, they've dragged on for years. Iran refuses to give up its nuclear weapons, viewing them as a defensive measure, while other countries view them as a potential offensive threat. Amid this renewed military escalation, the U.S. dollar has resumed strengthening.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 and bounced from it from above. This suggests the potential for further growth toward the 127.2% level at 1.3795, either after another rebound from 1.3435 or directly. The bullish trend remains intact for now, but a close below 1.3435 would shift expectations toward a drop to the 76.4% level at 1.3118. No new divergences are currently forming on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category was unchanged last week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,281, while short positions rose by 1,445. Bears have long since lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions stands at 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 103,000 vs. 68,000.

In my opinion, the pound still faces downside risks, but recent events have shifted the market in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has risen from 65,000 to 103,000, while short positions have decreased from 76,000 to 68,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports indicate that traders are reluctant to buy the U.S. currency. Regardless of the broader news context, the dollar continues to fall amid developments surrounding Trump.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

  • U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On Friday, the economic calendar includes only one relatively insignificant entry. The influence of economic data on trader sentiment will likely be minimal for the rest of the day. However, expect numerous updates related to the Iran–Israel conflict and Trump's tariff policies.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Short positions were valid after the rebound from the 1.3611–1.3620 resistance zone, with targets at 1.3527 and lower. Today, selling is possible after a close below 1.3527 with a target at 1.3444. Buying is recommended after a rebound from the 1.3527 level, targeting the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3446–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El fortalecimiento del dólar podría dar un giro bajista al mercado de criptomonedas

Hoy, el mercado se centrará en la publicación del informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos, que se espera que muestre no solo que ha dejado de bajar, sino

Pati Gani 13:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.