empty
26.05.2025 03:46 PM
EUR/USD. Another Trump Reversal, a Failed Attempt at the 1.14 Level, and Memorial Day

The euro/dollar pair continues its recovery—at the start of the new trading week, EUR/USD buyers tested the 1.1400 level (for the first time since late April), driven by overall weakness in the U.S. dollar. At the same time, Monday's economic calendar is nearly empty, and U.S. markets are closed for Memorial Day. The only scheduled events include speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. As a result, the dollar is weakening (and EUR/USD is rising) due to momentum from Friday's trading session. The "negotiation track" continues to weigh on the U.S. currency despite a mixed informational backdrop.

This image is no longer relevant

On Friday, Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on European goods starting June 1, complaining that trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU "aren't going anywhere" and calling the EU "a very difficult negotiation partner."

This unexpected development hit the greenback hard— the U.S. dollar index fell sharply into the 99 range, while EUR/USD settled firmly within the 1.13 zone. Today, the dollar remains under pressure, and EUR/USD buyers continue to climb higher, despite Trump softening his stance. Following a conversation with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump postponed the 50% tariffs until July 9, stating that the EC President assured him that "negotiations would begin quickly."

It's unclear what Trump meant exactly, as trade talks between Washington and Brussels actually began back in mid-April. Meanwhile, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic responded to Trump's threats by asserting that the EU is "capable of defending its interests," hinting at possible countermeasures.

Still, the fact remains: the U.S. President delayed the tariffs, which sparked renewed interest in risk assets. The euro benefited from this, while the greenback remained under pressure—today the dollar index dropped into the 98 range, marking a five-week low.

EUR/USD buyers were further supported by Trump's comment that the so-called OBPB ("One Big Beautiful Bill") would undergo significant changes in the Senate. This controversial bill extends temporary tax cuts (introduced during Trump's first term), increases defense and immigration enforcement spending, reduces popular social (healthcare) programs, and introduces new tax benefits. Last week, the bill narrowly passed in the House (215 votes in favor, 214 against) and is now heading to the Senate, where Republican infighting is expected to intensify. Trump therefore suggested the bill may be significantly amended and sent back to the House.

This 1,000-page proposal poses considerable risks to the U.S. economy, which is why markets reacted positively to news that it may be substantially revised—adding to the market's appetite for risk.

However, despite the upbeat start to the week, EUR/USD buyers failed to hold above the interim resistance at 1.1410 (the upper Bollinger Band on the 4H chart). Traders will need additional news-driven momentum to break into the 1.14 range and aim for higher price levels. Otherwise, the pair risks getting stuck again in the 1.1300–1.1400 range.

This week brings plenty of potential catalysts: on Tuesday, the U.S. consumer confidence index will be released; on Wednesday, the Fed's May meeting minutes; Thursday brings the second estimate of U.S. Q1 GDP; and Friday features the Core PCE Price Index.

Technical Perspective: On the D1 timeframe, EUR/USD is positioned between the midline and upper line of the Bollinger Bands and above all Ichimoku indicator lines, which have formed a bullish "Line Parade" signal. A similar setup is present on the W1 timeframe, indicating a preference for long positions.

The first bullish target is 1.1450 (the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart). The primary target remains 1.1570 (the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart), although it's too early to aim for this level. For this to happen, EUR/USD buyers must secure a hold above the 1.1450 resistance level and, more importantly, above the psychologically significant 1.1500 level.

Overall, bullish sentiment prevails for the pair—weakness in the U.S. dollar is pushing EUR/USD higher, while corrective pullbacks are offering opportunities to enter long positions at better prices. That said, it is advisable to open long positions only after buyers have at least overcome the intermediate resistance level at 1.1410 (the upper Bollinger Band on the H4 chart).

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se vende fácilmente

Mientras el mercado debate cómo afectará la legislación sobre las stablecoins, la reanudación de las amenazas arancelarias de Donald Trump deteriora el apetito global por el riesgo y contribuye

Marek Petkovich 13:41 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Los litigios judiciales entre Trump y las empresas sobre los aranceles influirán negativamente en los mercados (existe la probabilidad de que continúe la caída del precio del Bitcoin y del Litecoin)

Los mercados mundiales siguen bajo la fuerte influencia de los acontecimientos que ocurren en Estados Unidos, que tanto en el ámbito político como en el económico se comportan como

Pati Gani 12:57 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de mayo. La justicia prevaleció, ¿pero por cuánto tiempo?

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD el jueves se consolidó por debajo de la línea media móvil, mientras que el dólar creció durante tres días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todo

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de mayo. Jaque a Donald Trump.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó un débil movimiento descendente durante la primera mitad del jueves, pero en la segunda mitad se disparó bruscamente al alza. Vimos un fuerte estallido

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de mayo. La libra esterlina se mantiene estable.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento alcista el lunes. Es importante señalar de inmediato que la situación con el euro es bastante complicada e inestable. El euro

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de mayo. El presidente dijo, el presidente cambió de opinión.

El par de divisas EUR/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista durante la sesión del lunes desde la apertura del mercado. Otra caída del dólar estadounidense la semana pasada fue provocada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

El caos en los mercados continuará (hay probabilidad de una continuación de la caída local del #USDX y del precio del oro)

Los mercados continúan actuando a ciegas en medio de las acciones caóticas de D. Trump, quien intenta sacar a EE.UU. de la más profunda crisis integral como el barón

Pati Gani 11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.