empty
27.03.2025 04:06 AM
EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 27: Donald Trump Steps Back

This image is no longer relevant

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued trading with minimal volatility and a slight downward bias. Trading volumes were absent, which is unsurprising—there has been very little news this week and even fewer important events. The market is already focused on next week, when not only will Donald Trump announce new import tariffs, but key data on U.S. labor and unemployment will also be released. And that's not even the full list of major upcoming events.

Again, there's no need to emphasize how important U.S. labor and unemployment data is. These figures are critical for the Federal Reserve in determining monetary policy. If the labor market shows significant weakness and the unemployment rate consistently increases, the Federal Reserve will need to lower the key interest rate to avoid more serious issues. It's no secret that a tight monetary policy cools the economy and the labor market. So, while these data are fundamentally important, the market treats them as practically irrelevant.

Traders are currently focused exclusively on Donald Trump's trade tariffs, which precisely caused the U.S. dollar to plummet in recent weeks. Next week, the countries facing the new sanctions and their volume will finally be revealed.

Before his inauguration, Trump began discussing tariffs, so markets expected the worst-case scenario. However, over the past week, insider information has emerged suggesting that Trump may be softening his stance. The U.S. president may now introduce less "harsh" tariffs than initially planned—possibly only targeting countries with large trade deficits with the U.S. and implementing selective rather than broad measures. In any case, this suggests Trump's more moderate approach.

In our view, Trump is backtracking. The past two months have demonstrated that only economically weaker countries are willing to meet Trump's demands. Stronger players—such as the European Union, Canada, and China—impose retaliatory sanctions. Leaders in Beijing, Brussels, and Ottawa understand that while tariffs will hurt, they are unwilling to bow to Washington, knowing that giving in once will only encourage Trump to keep applying pressure and making more demands.

As of late March, we believe Trump realizes his strategy hasn't worked. If he imposes sweeping tariffs, the U.S. will continue to suffer. Much of the world is already boycotting American goods, the stock market is declining, the dollar is depreciating, and relationships with key neighbors and trade partners are deteriorating. The best action for Trump is to introduce "light" tariffs and pretend he respects other nations and is willing to negotiate, not just issue ultimatums.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days (as of March 27) is 67 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to trade between 1.0714 and 1.0848 on Thursday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the global downtrend remains intact, as seen in higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0620

S3 – 1.0498

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

EUR/USD continues a weak downward correction. For several months, we have consistently maintained that a medium-term decline in the euro is the most likely scenario—and nothing has changed. The U.S. dollar still has no reason for a medium-term drop apart from Donald Trump. Short positions remain much more attractive, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, though it's difficult to say when the illogical upward move will end. If you trade purely based on technicals, long positions can be considered if the price rises above the moving average, targeting 1.0986.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

Atualmente, o preço do ouro permanece confinado a uma faixa semanal. Entre os principais fatores que sustentam a valorização do metal estão a decisão do tribunal federal de apelação

Irina Yanina 18:46 2025-06-11 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Neste momento, o iene japonês continua sendo negociado dentro de uma faixa de consolidação intradiária, aproximando-se da mínima de duas semanas em relação ao dólar americano registrada ontem. Os principais

Irina Yanina 18:46 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Resultados da segunda rodada de negociações entre os EUA e a China

Os Estados Unidos e a China concluíram dois dias de importantes negociações comerciais com um plano para retomar o fluxo de produtos sensíveis - essa estrutura agora aguarda a aprovação

Jakub Novak 18:44 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Os EUA e a China: um pequeno avanço. O que vem a seguir? (Potencial para uma reversão e queda nos pares EUR/USD e NZD/USD)

Representantes dos Estados Unidos e da China chegaram a um acordo preliminar de comércio após dois dias de negociações de alto nível em Londres. Mas por que não há clima

Pati Gani 18:01 2025-06-11 UTC+2

O mercado aproxima-se do seu ponto de ruptura

O diabo está nos detalhes — e até agora, Estados Unidos e China não forneceram aos investidores essas informações sobre o acordo recém-concluído. Essa falta de transparência ameaça enfraquecer

Marek Petkovich 16:40 2025-06-11 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Análise e previsão

Apesar do cenário fundamental sugerir que o caminho de menor resistência para os preços à vista é de alta, ainda faltam compras de acompanhamento neste momento. O fraco desempenho

Irina Yanina 14:25 2025-06-11 UTC+2

O dólar se estabilizou, mas isso não vai durar muito

The latest CFTC report indicates that the sell-off of the U.S. dollar has either ended or is close to ending. The net short position against major currencies decreased by $1.094

Kuvat Raharjo 18:54 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Os mercados esperam um avanço nas negociações comerciais entre os EUA e a China (o ouro e o GBP/USD podem continuar caindo)

Os mercados praticamente pararam, à espera do desfecho das negociações comerciais entre representantes da China e dos Estados Unidos. Até o momento, não houve avanços, o que tem gerado ansiedade

Pati Gani 18:24 2025-06-10 UTC+2

A ausência de notícias já é uma boa notícia

As negociações comerciais entre os Estados Unidos e a China devem continuar pelo segundo dia, já que os dois lados pretendem aliviar as tensões relacionadas às exportações de tecnologia

Jakub Novak 18:07 2025-06-10 UTC+2

O BCE está pronto para esperar

O euro e a libra permanecem em uma faixa de variação em relação ao dólar americano, sofrendo alguma pressão após o primeiro dia de negociações entre a China

Jakub Novak 17:35 2025-06-10 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.