Turmoil has returned to the hydrocarbon market. According to Bloomberg, oil prices fell sharply after a second consecutive weekly increase in US crude inventories outweighed reports that Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. 

July WTI crude futures dropped below $62 per barrel after US data showed that crude stockpiles had reached their highest level since July. At the same time, demand for American gasoline took a notable dip. A weak US Treasury auction further rattled broader markets, intensifying the sell-off in oil prices. Brent futures also slid, falling below $65 per barrel.

Since last week, oil prices have been volatile, fluctuating on conflicting signals about the status of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US. Analysts warn that any Israeli military action would derail progress and escalate tensions in the Middle East, a region that supplies roughly one-third of the world's oil.

Previous market expectations of an easing of the supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025 have been overshadowed by geopolitical risks as OPEC+ gradually restores output. Some early projections suggest that WTI could plunge to $40 per barrel if sanctions on Iranian oil exports are lifted.

Despite tighter sanctions from the US, the UK, and Europe, Iran has continued to export crude. Recently, Tehran even increased its hydrocarbon shipments, defying pressure from Western allies.