Following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged, markets showed little reaction. Stock indices remained within their current ranges, and Bitcoin avoided sharp price swings, holding steady and mapping a path toward new peaks.
On Wednesday, June 18, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target at 4.25%–4.50% per annum, as widely expected. Markets gave a muted response, with no notable volatility.
The FOMC also released updated macroeconomic forecasts. Notably, the median "dot plot" forecast for interest rate dynamics remained unchanged. The committee now anticipates a key rate of 3.875% by the end of 2025, down 50 basis points from current levels. Besides, references to rising risks for unemployment and inflation were removed from the Fed's official statement.
For the first time since the onset of the trade war initiated by President Donald Trump, the Fed's updated macroeconomic forecasts project US inflation at 3% by the end of 2025, up from the previous March estimate of 2.7%. Unemployment is expected to reach 4.5%, a slight increase from prior projections.
Will Bitcoin hit $205,000 by the end of 2025?
Optimism remains strong among investors and analysts in the crypto industry. The Fed's latest decision had a minor impact on digital assets. Since June 11, Bitcoin has seen a mild correction, falling from $111,000 to around $104,000. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have exerted some pressure on BTC, but many analysts believe the long-term bullish trajectory remains intact.
On Thursday, June 19, Bitcoin opened a 5rading day in a sideways manner, holding near $104,820. The 24-hour low stood at $103,602, while the high reached $105,581.
According to Carmelo Aleman, a crypto enthusiast and analyst at CryptoQuant Quicktake, traders should monitor Bitcoin's annual percentage trend. This indicator, which tracks BTC's yearly performance since 2011, suggests strong potential for growth through the end of 2025. It reflects a recurring pattern: three bullish years followed by one year of consolidation.
This trend closely aligns with Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle and helps investors identify long-term market phases beyond short-term volatility.
"The annual percentage trend helps filter out daily market noise and emphasizes the cyclical nature of Bitcoin. Beyond short-term moves, BTC follows a structural rhythm with a remarkable consistency: three years of gains followed by one year of compression," Aleman explains.
If BTC maintains its usual pace during the third year of a bullish cycle, Aleman forecasts a 120% gain in 2025. That would mean a potential surge from the recent $93,226 level to an eye-watering $205,097—what could become Bitcoin's peak for 2025.
"If this materializes, 2025 would mark the third consecutive year of gains and the conclusion of another full bull cycle," Aleman adds.
This scenario suggests BTC is now in the final phase of its current cycle, giving investors limited time to adjust their strategies in line with the market's growth trajectory. Supporting this forecast are other cyclical metrics, such as the realized cap, which may soon hit new highs.
Technical indicators support further Bitcoin's uptrend
Beyond the annual percentage trend, technical indicators also point toward continued Bitcoin growth. Both institutional and retail inflows to exchanges have declined to cyclical lows. Experts interpret this as a sign of investor patience and expectation of higher BTC prices ahead.
Caution among market participants appears justified. The global backdrop remains uncertain, even as some outcomes—like the Fed's rate decision—were widely anticipated. Bitcoin now consolidates between key support at $102,000 and resistance near its record high of $111,000.
"Such sideways movement often precedes a volatile breakout in either direction," analysts note.
Geopolitics is also contributing to uncertainty, especially amid ongoing military conflicts. Yet despite this turbulence, many investors believe Bitcoin still has room to rally—particularly if its structural rhythm plays out as expected.
