Analysis GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair formed important signals even on the hourly timeframe on Wednesday. Recall that in the fundamental articles, we spoke about important technical signals for both the euro and the pound on higher timeframes. As we can see, important signals were also formed on the lower timeframes. In particular, the pound rebounded on Friday from the Senkou Span B line, a strong support level for the price. Earlier, the pair broke the ascending trendline, but we believe that a trend change to a downtrend did not occur. At present, the price remains above the Ichimoku indicator lines, so the upward trend persists. This week, there are no major reports or events in either the UK or the US, and the market will resume trading in full on Monday.

In general, the pound continues to "look" upward. Already next week, important US labor market and unemployment data will be published, so the dollar may again come under pressure. However, it was under pressure throughout 2025. In 2026, little is likely to change fundamentally, as global fundamental factors remain the same.

On the 5?minute timeframe on Friday several trade signals were formed, but we do not even see the point in considering them. It is unlikely that anyone opened positions on December 31 in the face of a complete information vacuum.

COT report

COT reports for the pound show that, in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has fluctuated. The red and blue lines showing the net positions of commercial and non?commercial traders constantly cross and, in most cases, remain close to zero. At present, the lines are moving apart, but the dominant players are now non?commercial traders with sales. Speculators are increasingly selling the pound, but, as we already said, it does not matter how low the demand for the British currency is. For the US dollar, it is often even lower.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, lower rates within the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will fall one way or another. According to the latest COT report (dated December 16) for the pound, the Non?commercial group opened 1,600 BUY contracts and closed 25,400 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non?commercial traders increased by 27,000 contracts over the week.

In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but one should understand that the reason is one: Donald Trump's policy. As soon as this reason is neutralized, the dollar may begin to rise, but nobody knows when.

Analysis GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, but the market is still in a holiday pause. We believe the pound's medium-term rise will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop. The trend for the pound remains upward on virtually all timeframes. Until January 5, we are unlikely to see interesting market moves.

For January 2, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3201–1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3584. The Senkou Span B (1.3421) and Kijun?sen (1.3464) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the stop loss to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

No important events or reports are scheduled in the UK or the US on Friday. The pair may trade very weakly, and the possible direction can be determined only by technical factors.

Trading recommendations:

Today, traders can consider selling if the price closes below the critical line, with targets at 1.3437 and Senkou Span B. Long positions are already relevant since the price closed above the Kijun?sen line, with a target of 1.3533–1.3548.

Explanations for illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines near which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines — Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4?hour. They are strong lines.
• Extremum levels — thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines — trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts — the size of the net position of each trader category.