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02.12.2025 09:09 AM
Stock market on December 2: S&P 500 and NASDAQ extend losses

Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.53%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.90%.

Asian indices rose today, recovering from Monday's sell-off, during which cryptocurrencies were the leaders in declines among global risk assets. Japanese government bonds increased in price after a closely watched auction of 10-year bonds attracted strong demand. The MSCI World Index rose by 0.5% before losing some ground. Futures for European stocks changed little, while futures for American stocks slightly declined during Asian trading. Bitcoin increased amid a volatile session following a drop of more than 5% on Monday.

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The yen weakened against the US dollar after reaching a one-week high, when Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda provided the clearest hint yet of a potential rate hike soon. Yields on Japanese government bonds surged this year amid expectations of a growing budget deficit and another rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This is significant, as rising yields on short-term Japanese government bonds may contribute to an increase in yields on other long-term government securities, raising borrowing costs.

In the coming days, the main focus will be on central bank actions: the Federal Reserve's meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, while the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on interest rates on December 19, with a rate increase expected. Swaps now imply an approximately 80% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its meeting this month and a greater than 90% probability at the meeting in January. Just a week ago, the December probability was only 36%.

US Treasury bonds stabilized after falling across the curve in the previous session: the yield on 10-year bonds jumped by seven basis points to approximately 4.1%. The yield on Australian 10-year bonds rose by six basis points.

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Silver retreated from its record high. Gold also declined, while oil prices increased. It is evident that the commodity market is experiencing some stabilization as the year draws to a close after a significant shake-up this year.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,819. This would help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,837. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,842 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,801. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,784 and open the way to $6,769.

Summary
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Pavel Vlasov
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