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17.09.2025 11:44 AM
The European Central Bank Must Be Ready to Act

While the euro continues to set fresh highs daily and shows steady growth against the U.S. dollar, ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva believes the European Central Bank must remain ready to act on interest rates, as uncertainty persists despite inflation being under control.

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"We need to be very flexible and ready to move in any direction of monetary policy," said the head of Spain's central bank. "Even if our baseline scenario materializes, that doesn't mean the elements of uncertainty have disappeared."

Escriva's statement, made against the backdrop of rising economic strains and unpredictable energy prices, highlights the delicate balance European policymakers must maintain. On one hand, relatively stable inflation gives room to maneuver. On the other, external shocks and potential growth slowdowns call for greater caution.

Markets did not interpret Escriva's comments as a signal of an imminent ECB policy shift. However, as opposition to the wait-and-see stance grows within the ECB, the situation could change quickly. Traders recognize that any future decisions will depend on multiple factors, including GDP data, labor market conditions, and inflation expectations.

Today, attention will focus on eurozone inflation data. At its last meeting, the ECB indicated it does not plan to cut borrowing costs further after eight reductions this year. Consumer prices are broadly aligned with the 2% target, a trend likely to be confirmed in today's figures.

"Disinflation has been successful," Escriva said. "Two or three years ago, the situation was difficult. Current rates at 2% seem reasonable to us." He also described risks to prices as balanced, with a slightly negative tilt for economic growth.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD: Buyers now need to secure the 1.1875 level. Only then can they aim for a test of 1.1910. From there, the pair could attempt to reach 1.1940, though this will be difficult without support from large players. The ultimate target lies at the 1.1985 high. On the other hand, meaningful buying interest is expected only near 1.1835. If absent there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of 1.1790 or consider longs from 1.1750.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD: Pound buyers need to overcome nearby resistance at 1.3665. This would open the way to 1.3710, above which further gains will be difficult. The furthest target is around 1.3745. If the pair declines, bears will aim to take control of 1.3625. A break below this range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3590, with potential to extend losses to 1.3550.

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Pavel Vlasov
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