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03.09.2025 09:10 PM
EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today the EUR/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, rising by 0.37% against the backdrop of a decline in the U.S. dollar index after disappointing U.S. economic data. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a significant drop in job openings and an increase in layoffs, which analysts attribute to the impact of tariff measures on the U.S. labor market.

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Confirmation of labor market weakness in the U.S. from the JOLTS data strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The U.S. dollar weakened after both the JOLTS report and industrial orders data confirmed a slowdown in the labor market, supporting the euro's rise.

However, the pair is not ready for global growth, as the eurozone services PMI came in below expectations at 50.5, while producer prices declined, keeping the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook cautiously dovish.

From a technical perspective, since the pair has not broken above the 9-day EMA coinciding with the 50-day SMA, this indicates weak momentum and shows that prices are not ready for global growth.

The next resistance level for the pair is at the round mark of 1.1700, above which it may attempt to test 1.1750, targeting 1.1800 with an intermediate stop at 1.1770.

On the other hand, prices have found support at 1.1630, with the round level of 1.1600 serving as strong support below it. Failure to hold this level would give bears the upper hand.

Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart remain neutral.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
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