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10.07.2025 07:24 PM
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold prices are maintaining positive momentum for the second consecutive day. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on the global economy continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Additional support for gold comes from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year, which enhances the metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 17–18 revealed that most members are concerned about rising inflationary pressures due to the Trump administration's aggressive trade measures. At the same time, some policymakers indicated that a rate cut might not be necessary.

Nevertheless, the majority of participants believe that lowering interest rates could become appropriate toward the end of the year, while the price shocks caused by tariffs are likely to be temporary or moderate. These expectations have contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, further supported by a successful auction of 10-year government bonds.

As a result, the U.S. dollar is retreating for the second consecutive day from its two-week high, providing additional support for gold and reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset in an uncertain environment.

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For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of U.S. weekly jobless claims and speeches by FOMC members.

From a technical standpoint, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, located near $3335, may act as resistance to further upside in gold. The next hurdle lies around the 200-period SMA at approximately $3340. A breakout above these levels could open the way toward the supply zone near $3360–3365. A rise beyond this area may trigger short-covering and extend the bullish momentum toward the psychological level of $3400.

On the other hand, a drop below the $3300 round figure would expose yesterday's low near $3280. Further selling pressure could make gold vulnerable to accelerated declines, potentially leading to a test of the June low.

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