Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1549 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's potential for further decline. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test at 1.1549 shortly thereafter matched the MACD, which was in the oversold area, prompting the execution of Scenario #2 to buy. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.

Yesterday was spent in anticipation of news from the U.S., as there were no significant economic data reports. The main event was progress in resolving the governmental crisis. The Senate approved a bill aimed at stopping the shutdown, which is now sent to the House of Representatives for a vote. If approved by the House, the document will be sent to President Trump for signature. Financial markets reacted to this news with a restrained rise. Tired of instability, market participants saw this as a first step toward normalizing the operations of government institutions.

This morning, a series of economic indicators from the ZEW Institute is expected to be published, including the German Economic Sentiment Index, the Current Situation Index, and the overall European Business Sentiment Index. The German Economic Sentiment Index is given particular importance. A decline in this index may signal growing concerns about the future of the largest European economy, potentially related to trade disputes, slowing global growth, and other factors. Conversely, an increase in the index will indicate sustained positive sentiment among German companies and investors. The Current Situation Index reflects the current state of the Eurozone economy, allowing for an assessment of its ability to cope with existing challenges. A comparative analysis of these two indices – sentiment and the current situation – will provide a clearer picture of the Eurozone economy. The impact of these news items on markets could be significant, especially in the event of significant deviations between actual results and expectations.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I will buy euros if the price reaches around 1.1570 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1599. At the 1.1599 point, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Anticipating a rise in the euro is possible after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1552 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward 1.1570 and 1.1599 is expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1552 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1528, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from this level). The pressure on the pair today is unlikely to be significant. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1570 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1552 and 1.1528 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.