Trade Review and Strategy for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 146.32 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. This led to a gain of more than 40 points.

Yesterday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose another 35% tariff on goods from most countries, including Japan. This triggered a new wave of selling pressure on the Japanese yen and pushed the USD/JPY pair toward a monthly high. The market reacted immediately to Trump's aggressive rhetoric. As a traditional safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty, the yen faced broad sell-offs. Investors, fearing an escalation in global trade tensions, reduced their holdings in yen, which caused a sharp decline in its value against the U.S. dollar. As a result, the USD/JPY pair surged to monthly highs, indicating the growing strength of the dollar. Clearly, market participants interpreted the tariff threat as a signal to reduce exposure to risk.

The further trajectory of the USD/JPY pair will depend on developments in U.S. trade relations with other countries. Any escalation could further weaken the yen, while signs of compromise may stabilize the currency market. In any case, Trump's statement has served as a catalyst for significant volatility, underscoring his influence on the global economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Buy Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 147.14 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 147.64 (thicker green line). Around 147.64, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point retracement). Buying should be considered after corrections or notable pullbacks. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 146.83 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and signal a reversal to the upside. A rise toward 147.14 and 147.64 may then follow.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the price breaks below 146.83 (red line on the chart), expecting a quick decline toward 146.36, where I will close short positions and consider opening long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Strong downward pressure on the pair is unlikely today.Important: Before entering a short position, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 147.14 twice consecutively while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 146.83 and 146.36 may follow.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry point for long positions
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry point for short positions
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – Use overbought/oversold zones to guide entry decisions

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when entering the market. It is generally better to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses—especially with large volumes and no money management—can quickly result in a total loss of capital.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on short-term market conditions is typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.