empty
19.06.2025 08:16 PM
EUR/USD Analysis on June 19, 2025

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend section. The transformation in the structure has occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28—when the decline in the U.S. dollar began—the wave layout resembled a clear downward trend, with corrective wave 2 under construction. However, Donald Trump's initiation of a trade war, aimed at increasing budget revenues and reducing the trade deficit, is currently working against the U.S. currency. Demand for the dollar began to fall sharply, and now the entire trend segment starting on January 13 has taken on an impulsive upward form.

At present, wave 3 within wave 3 is presumably continuing. If this is indeed the case, then the upward movement in quotes will likely persist in the coming weeks and months. However, the U.S. dollar will remain under pressure only if Donald Trump does not reverse his trade policy by 180 degrees. The chances of such a reversal are extremely low, and at the moment, there is no reason to expect a strong rise in the dollar.

The EUR/USD rate remained unchanged on Thursday, just as it had the day before. Therefore, it is safe to say that the results of the Federal Reserve meeting did not impress the market. There was little to be impressed by. The regulator decided to keep the interest rate at the current level of 4.5%, and the market did not receive a single hint regarding the timing of the next round of monetary policy easing. The statements made by Jerome Powell during the press conference contained nothing new. The FOMC Chair once again lamented the complete economic uncertainty caused by the White House's new trade policy. According to him, the Fed is in a favorable position to remain in a wait-and-see mode. Clearly, Mr. Powell anticipates rising inflation and slowing economic growth, as Trump's tariffs are already in effect and will inevitably impact these economic indicators negatively. The only question is: by how much?

Based on all of the above, the market found no reason to increase or decrease demand for the U.S. dollar. The current wave layout remains unchanged, and the failed attempt to break through the 1.1458 level—which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement—could mark the beginning of a new upward wave within the current wave structure. Therefore, I expect the instrument to resume its growth. In the coming days, there may also be news on whether the U.S. will enter a full-scale war with Iran. According to insider information from the White House, a plan for an attack on Iran is already prepared; only President Trump's order is needed to implement it. The U.S. President is not rushing to give such an order, but if America becomes involved in a military conflict, it is unlikely to positively impact the dollar. And let's not forget the global trade war.

This image is no longer relevant

General conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news backdrop, particularly decisions from Trump and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 may extend up to the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buying opportunities, with initial targets near 1.1708, which corresponds to 127.2% Fibonacci. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but at present, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

On the higher wave scale, the wave pattern has shifted to an upward trend. It is likely that we are entering a long-term bullish wave cycle, though the news backdrop—especially from Donald Trump—could still turn everything upside down once again.

Key principles of my analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
  2. If you are not confident in what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análise do EUR/USD em 17 de julho de 2025

O padrão de onda no gráfico EUR/USD de 4 horas permaneceu inalterado por vários meses consecutivos. O segmento ascendente da tendência ainda está em desenvolvimento, enquanto o contexto noticioso continua

Chin Zhao 21:51 2025-07-17 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 16 de julho de 2025

O padrão de ondas do GBP/USD continua a indicar a formação de um movimento impulsivo de alta. A configuração das ondas é quase idêntica à do EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 21:47 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 16 de julho de 2025

O padrão de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD tem permanecido inalterado por vários meses consecutivos. A formação do segmento de tendência ascendente continua, e o noticiário recente

Chin Zhao 21:41 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 15 de julho de 2025

O padrão de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas para o EUR/USD permanece inalterado há vários meses consecutivos. A formação da seção de tendência ascendente continua, sustentada por um contexto

Chin Zhao 20:56 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 15 de julho de 2025

O padrão de ondas do GBP/USD continua a apontar para a formação de uma estrutura impulsiva de alta. A configuração das ondas é muito semelhante à do EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 20:45 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD - 14 de julho. A semana não começou com um tom positivo

O padrão de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do par EUR/USD permanece inalterado há vários meses. O segmento de alta do movimento segue em desenvolvimento, com o pano

Chin Zhao 22:57 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD – 14 de julho. Dólar encontra novo motivo para comemorar

O padrão de ondas do par GBP/USD continua indicando a formação de uma estrutura impulsiva de alta. A configuração é praticamente idêntica à do EUR/USD, já que o dólar americano

Chin Zhao 22:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análise do GBP/USD em 10 de julho de 2025

O padrão de ondas para o GBP/USD continua sinalizando a formação de uma estrutura de impulso de alta. O cenário das ondas se assemelha bastante ao do EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 22:54 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 10 de julho de 2025

Nos últimos meses, o padrão de ondas no gráfico horário do EUR/USD pouco mudou. A formação da tendência de alta segue em curso, enquanto o cenário de notícias continua desfavorável

Chin Zhao 22:45 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Análise do EUR/USD em 8 de julho de 2025

A estrutura de ondas no gráfico de 4 horas do EUR/USD tem se mantido estável há vários meses. O movimento de alta segue em formação, enquanto o noticiário continua favorecendo

Chin Zhao 20:26 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.