empty
30.04.2025 12:42 AM
The Dollar Steps on the Same Old Rake

Trust is hard to earn and easy to lose. While markets assess Donald Trump's first 100 days in office, believers in historical signs point to an event in late April 1925. One hundred years ago, Winston Churchill made what is widely regarded as the greatest monetary policy mistake in history — he tried to return the British pound to the gold standard. The result? The era of sterling dominance came to an end. Could this be a sign that the U.S. dollar's throne is beginning to shake?

The greenback is used in around 90% of cross-border transactions, significantly more than its share in global central bank reserves or the U.S. share of global GDP. The dollar functions as the "plumbing" of the global financial system, so expecting it to be dethroned outright would be naive.

U.S. Dollar Performance

This image is no longer relevant

What is more realistic is the beginning of a long-term downtrend in the USD index. Indeed, the last sustained upward trend began when the U.S. credit rating was downgraded in 2011. Trust gained, and trust lost — these are not empty words!

Due to White House policy, doubt surrounding the U.S. dollar and American assets in general have emerged. Former allies have become Washington's arch-enemies, while a long-standing adversary — Russia — is now nearly a close friend. Can one realistically expect China and Japan to keep buying U.S. Treasuries when massive tariffs have been imposed on both nations? Unsurprisingly, investors have turned away, and the USD index has shown the worst performance ever during the first 100 days of any presidency. Under Donald Trump, the dollar has fallen by 10%, a mirror image of events when Ronald Reagan entered the White House.

USD Dynamics Under Various Presidents

This image is no longer relevant

U.S. stocks are rebounding as April ends, but the dollar refuses to follow suit. According to Danske Bank, it would be naive to think that the peak of political uncertainty is behind us. The current 90-day grace period is only temporary, after which trade conflicts are expected to escalate. Trump is not one to back down. He intends to use tariffs to fill the budget gap caused by extending the tax relief period.

The Tax Foundation believes this is impossible. This conservative group estimates that tariffs will bring in $167 billion in 2025. But in 2022 alone, U.S. households earning less than $179,000 per year paid $600 billion in income tax.

This image is no longer relevant

The math shows that Trump's plans are unrealistic — but that doesn't stop the U.S. president.

Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, bulls have made a second attempt to break through resistance at 1.14 and push the pair out of its short-term consolidation range. So far, everything is going according to buyers' plans. However, for the rally to continue, the pair needs to break through the local high at 1.1425, which would open the door to further long positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Ouro se recupera com o ressurgimento de riscos fiscais

Ouro oscila entre extremos com o fim da primavera. O ouro tem registrado fortes movimentos de alta e baixa neste final de primavera. A semana encerrada em 16 de maio

Marek Petkovich 18:13 2025-05-23 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par AUD/JPY começou a atrair interesse comprador, interrompendo seu recuo a partir da máxima mensal à medida que surge demanda pelo dólar australiano. As conversas de hoje entre

Irina Yanina 18:05 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par segue em tendência de baixa, aproximando-se do nível psicológico-chave de 1,3800, em meio à fraqueza generalizada do dólar americano. Os traders aumentaram suas apostas em cortes nas taxas

Irina Yanina 17:51 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY: o que está acontecendo com o iene?

O par USD/JPY está enfrentando uma forte volatilidade. No final de abril, sofreu uma queda acentuada, atingindo a mínima de sete meses em 139,90. Na semana passada, porém, um movimento

Irina Manzenko 17:23 2025-05-23 UTC+2

O caos do mercado deve continuar (há uma probabilidade de queda local contínua no #USDX e nos preços do ouro)

Os mercados continuam a agir de forma cega em meio às ações caóticas de Donald Trump, que tenta tirar os EUA de uma crise profunda e abrangente, como o Barão

Pati Gani 16:28 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Dólar declara guerra ao euro

O que é novo muitas vezes é apenas o que foi esquecido. À medida que a primavera chega ao fim, o velho mantra "vendam os EUA" volta a ecoar

Marek Petkovich 16:09 2025-05-23 UTC+2

O mercado demonstra cautela

A Câmara dos Deputados aprovou a iniciativa de corte de impostos proposta por Donald Trump. O presidente espera que a medida estimule a economia e compense as deficiências da política

Marek Petkovich 15:46 2025-05-23 UTC+2

O dólar continua avançando

A aprovação pela Câmara dos Deputados do que Donald Trump chamou de um projeto de lei de corte de impostos "grande e bonito", aliada a um aumento no PMI composto

Marek Petkovich 20:44 2025-05-22 UTC+2

O dólar comprometeu sua própria estabilidade.

O euro pode ser considerado uma moeda forte? Tenho dúvidas de forma significativa sobre isso. Um grupo independente de consultores econômicos de Friedrich Merz prevê que a economia alemã entrará

Marek Petkovich 20:32 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Visão geral do EUR/USD - 22 de maio: Mais um Golpe no Dólar: A Polêmica "Grande e Bela Lei" de Trump

O par EUR/USD continuou sua trajetória de alta nesta quarta-feira. O dólar americano vem em queda constante há mais de uma semana — algo que não se via há mais

Paolo Greco 20:32 2025-05-22 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.