Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The first test of the 1.1674 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1674 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, which enabled the execution of sell scenario #2. However, there was no significant decline in the pair.

Yesterday's release of revised data indicated a higher US GDP growth rate for the second quarter of this year. Surprisingly, the dollar practically did not react to this information. It appears that investors' attention was focused on searching for further signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy actions. Therefore, despite the positive economic data, the dollar was under pressure due to a combination of factors, including expectations about the Fed's actions and geopolitical instability. In the near term, the dollar's exchange rate will remain unstable and sensitive to any new economic data or political developments.

Today, economists and market participants will closely watch the release of upcoming economic reports, hoping to get a clearer picture of the current state of the German economy. Special attention will be paid to retail sales figures, as they indicate consumer activity, the main factor driving economic expansion. A decline in sales may signal a slowdown, while an increase would indicate stability. Employment data are equally important. A rise in the number of unemployed individuals and an increase in the overall unemployment rate may indicate negative trends in the labor market, which could, in turn, negatively affect consumers' purchasing power. Conversely, positive trends will be seen as favorable for the economy. And, of course, the most important indicator is the Consumer Price Index. Accelerating price growth could prompt the European Central Bank to finish its rate-cutting cycle, which would support the euro but could also have negative consequences for economic growth. Thus, today's economic summary for the eurozone will be key in assessing short-term economic prospects and will likely significantly affect currency market dynamics.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1674 area (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1708. At 1.1708, I intend to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. A euro rally should only be counted on after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also intend to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1655 price while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward the 1.1674 and 1.1708 levels.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches the 1.1655 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1626, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy (aiming for a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair is expected to return today if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and is just starting to decline from this level.
• Scenario #2: I also intend to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1674 price while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential and lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1655 and 1.1626.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.