On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday returned to the 161.8% corrective level at 1.3110. A rebound of the quotes today from the resistance zone of 1.3110–1.3139 will favor the U.S. dollar and a slight decline toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3024. A consolidation of the pair above the 1.3110–1.3139 level will allow us to expect continued growth toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3186.

The wave situation remains completely bearish. The last upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the most recent completed downward wave broke the previous low. Unfortunately for the pound, the fundamental background has worsened for it in recent weeks, making it extremely difficult for the bulls to mount attacks — which were already quite weak. To end the bearish trend, growth above the 1.3213 level is required.

The fundamental background on Friday once again proved unfavorable for the pound. Retail sales volumes in October turned out to be much worse than traders expected, which was merely 0%. In fact, volumes fell by 1.1% m/m and grew by only 0.2% y/y (vs. expected +1.5%). Thus, from early morning, the pound once again came under market pressure. It was not saved by the business activity indices from the UK or the US, and only the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index prevented the pound from falling even lower by the end of the day. Therefore, the fundamental background remains the main reason the bulls cannot launch an offensive. There are no expected UK news releases this week, and U.S. economic data will also remain limited. Both central banks may lower rates at their December meetings, putting the pound and the dollar in roughly equal conditions. On Monday, no fundamental background is expected, so traders' passivity may reappear.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline within a downward trend channel. If a new bullish trend is beginning, we will gradually receive confirmation of this. I will start counting on strong pound growth only after the quotes close above the channel. Consolidation below the 1.3044 correction level will allow us to expect a continued decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2925. No emerging divergences are visible today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the Non-commercial category became more bullish during the last reporting week, but this report is from a month and a half ago — October 7. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,871, while short positions rose by 9,453. The gap between long and short positions is currently: 94 thousand versus 98 thousand — practically equal.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England may cut rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, but 2026 may be no better for it.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On November 24, the economic calendar contains nothing of interest. The fundamental background will not influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Sales of the pair are possible today if the quotes rebound from the 1.3110 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3024. Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the 1.3110–1.3139 resistance zone, targeting 1.3186.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3247–1.3470 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.