Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 147.54 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential.

The dollar may rise against the yen if the U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index shows strong results. However, the figures would need to significantly exceed economists' expectations. The Empire Manufacturing Index, which reflects the state of the manufacturing sector in New York State, is traditionally considered an indicator of U.S. economic activity. Better-than-expected results often signal rising production, higher orders, and overall improvement in business confidence.

Any strengthening of the dollar against the yen in response to strong Empire Manufacturing data is likely to be temporary, allowing medium-term traders betting on yen strength to enter at more attractive prices. For this reason, I would not count on strong USD/JPY growth. A positive Empire Manufacturing Index may support overall confidence in the U.S. economy, but it is unlikely to influence the Fed's interest rate plans. Thus, strong data could trigger a short-term dollar rise against the yen, but the effect would likely be brief.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 147.45 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target at 147.91 (thicker green line on the chart). At 147.91, I will exit buys and open sells in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move downward. Growth will only be realistic after strong data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 147.25 twice, at the moment when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward 147.45 and 147.91.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 147.25 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.82, where I will exit sales and open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25-point rebound. Selling pressure is likely to return if the data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 147.45 twice, at the moment when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can then be expected toward 147.25 and 146.82.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter trades. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.