Trade analysis and advice for trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 152.75 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar in continuation of the bullish market. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points.

The Japanese yen may lose even more ground against the dollar after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech — especially in light of the lack of any important U.S. fundamental statistics. In the absence of macroeconomic data, market participants' full attention will be on the speeches of U.S. central bank officials. Analysts agree that any hints about keeping rates unchanged to curb inflation could trigger further weakening of the yen. Given the persistent interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan, dollar-denominated assets remain highly attractive to investors. The Bank of Japan, under the new prime minister who is clearly focused on stimulating the economy, is unlikely to raise rates by year-end, which adds further pressure on the yen.

In this situation, any hawkish statement from Powell or other FOMC members could act as a catalyst for another wave of yen selling. The market will closely monitor the Fed's assessment of inflation and growth prospects to forecast the regulator's next moves.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 152.87 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 153.56 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.56, I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Growth can be expected in continuation of the upward trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 152.44 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 152.87 and 153.56 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 152.44 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 151.82, where I will exit the sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure on the pair may return if Fed representatives adopt a dovish stance.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just begun declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 152.87 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 152.44 and 151.82 can then be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.