On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. The rebound from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3528 worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, leading to a slight decline with a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3482. Thus, today the pair's decline may continue toward 1.3425 and even the support level of 1.3332–1.3357. A consolidation above 1.3482 would allow expectations of renewed growth toward 1.3528 and 1.3574.

The wave pattern remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the last high. The news background for the pound over the past two weeks has been negative, but I believe traders have already fully priced it in. This week, however, the news background is negative for the U.S. dollar. To cancel the "bearish" trend, the pair needs to rise another 250 pips, but I think we may see signs of a shift toward a "bullish" trend much earlier.

On Wednesday, there was no news background for the pound, while the U.S. dollar faced highly contradictory signals. The ADP employment report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs against traders' expectations of +40–50 thousand. This means there is still no sign of a labor market recovery after the Fed's monetary easing on September 17. Admittedly, too little time has passed since the last FOMC meeting, but the fact remains—the U.S. labor market is in poor condition. The ISM manufacturing PMI report was slightly better. In reality, it was just as weak as ADP: the September figure came in at 49.1 points. Any reading below 50 cannot be considered positive. Nevertheless, compared with August, the indicator rose by 0.4 points and beat market expectations by 0.1 point. Bears took advantage of this, but they still lack a full informational platform for a strong offensive.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from 1.3339 and turned upward in favor of the pound. Consolidation above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435 increases the likelihood of continued growth toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today. A new decline in the pound could be expected only after consolidation below 1.3339.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became more "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short contracts now stands at roughly 85,000 versus 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the scales in their favor.

In my view, the pound still faces prospects of decline. However, with each passing month, the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. If previously traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies without fully understanding their consequences, now they may worry about the results of these policies: a possible recession, the constant imposition of new tariffs, and Trump's confrontation with the Fed, as a result of which the regulator could become "politically controlled" by the White House. Thus, the pound now looks far less vulnerable than the U.S. currency.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.: U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).On October 2, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry for the U.S. The news background will not affect market sentiment on Thursday.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trader tips: Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from 1.3528 with targets at 1.3482 and 1.3425 on the hourly chart. Buying can be considered today on a close above 1.3482 or on a rebound from 1.3425 with targets at the nearest retracement levels.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3332–1.3725 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.