GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher, but with minimal volatility. During the past day, only one US report was published: the second estimate of Q2 GDP. It turned out that the US economy showed even stronger growth than the first estimate—3.3% quarter-over-quarter. However, as we predicted, the market ignored this information.

It is essential to note that the dollar is influenced by a range of global fundamental factors that hinder its optimistic outlook. We mention these factors almost every day, and over time, they remain unchanged. Thus, we still expect only declines from the US currency—and Donald Trump helps us with this nearly every day. The US President continues to impose tariffs, battle with the Federal Reserve, and tries to subdue anyone with a different viewpoint. The market has a gloomy view of the US economy. Growth might be impressive, but inflation will also rise, and the labor market is already experiencing issues at the very beginning of the new trade era. All in all, there are very few optimists regarding America right now.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the pair spent the entire day yesterday within the 1.3466–1.3525 area. There are two Ichimoku indicator lines and two levels in this area, so trading between these levels and lines makes no sense. Positions should only be considered after the price leaves this range. We expect further upward movement.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly shifting. The red and blue lines, reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, regularly cross and usually stay close to zero. At present, they are again almost at the same level, suggesting roughly equal long and short positions.

The dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, so demand for sterling among market makers is not particularly relevant now. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will cut rates at some point in the coming year. Dollar demand will fall regardless. According to the latest COT report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,500 BUY contracts and closed 6,300 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose by 13,800 contracts for the reporting week.

In 2025, the pound has risen significantly, but it is important to understand that the reason is singular—Trump's policy. Once that factor fades, the dollar may strengthen, but no one knows when. It does not matter much how the pound's net position changes—dollar positioning is falling anyway, usually at a faster pace.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair is poised to form a new uptrend; however, it remains stagnant for now. The GBP/USD pair has corrected sufficiently in recent weeks to resume the global uptrend that began in January. The fundamental and macroeconomic background hasn't changed, so there are still no grounds to expect dollar growth.

For August 29, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3509–1.3525, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B (1.3495) and Kijun-sen (1.3466) lines can also serve as signal sources. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the trading day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals.

On Friday, there are no macroeconomic releases or events scheduled in the UK, while the US will publish the PCE index, personal income and spending reports, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These are not the most important data, but they may provoke a slight market reaction.

Trading Recommendations

We believe that on Friday, the upward movement may continue, but from above, the pound still faces the resistance area of 1.3509–1.3525. We expect this area to be breached before considering long positions with a target at 1.3615.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
• Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.