Analysis of trades and trading advice for the Japanese yen

The price test of 153.14 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and skipped the entire upward movement of the pair.

The cautious stance of the Bank of Japan, expressed today by its governor after the decision to keep interest rates unchanged, negatively affected demand for the yen under the current conditions, further reinforcing the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

Later today, FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Lorie K. Logan are scheduled to give public speeches. Investors and analysts are eagerly awaiting their comments, especially following the recent Federal Reserve decision to cut the key interest rate.

Their speeches may reveal which factors the Fed currently considers the main threats to the U.S. economy. Additionally, nuances matter: markets will look for signs of disagreement within the FOMC and for insights into how the rate cut might affect long-term price stability and the overall financial system. A careful analysis of Bowman's and Logan's remarks will provide valuable insights into the current state and future outlook of the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 154.02 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for a rise to 154.85 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.85, I will exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level. A rise in the pair is possible only after a strong (hawkish) Fed stance.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 153.62 price, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the 154.02 and 154.85 levels can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 153.62 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 152.97, where I will exit short positions and open buys in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Pressure on the pair will likely return if the Fed adopts a dovish stance.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 154.02 price, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward 153.62 and 152.97 can be expected.

Chart Key

• Thin green line – entry price level where the instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – suggested level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price level where the instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – suggested level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginners

New Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade with large volumes and without proper money management.

And remember: For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements is an inherently losing strategy for any intraday trader.