Since the start of the U.S. budget crisis, the British pound has perked up, reaching the key resistance level of 1.3525. However, this optimism has not been supported by external markets or technical indicators — the Marlin oscillator remains weak and stuck in negative territory.

As a result, the pound has retraced more than half of its upward progress. Today, the pair opened above the MACD line. If the upward movement gains momentum, Marlin is likely to enter positive territory soon. A firm break above 1.3525 would open the path toward the next target at 1.3631.

Despite the political instability in the United States, the pound has been technically developing within a broad sideways channel — between 1.3364 and 1.3631 — for approximately four and a half months. Therefore, a reversal may follow quickly from one of the upcoming resistance levels at 1.3631 or 1.3700.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is rising above the MACD line, and the Marlin oscillator is also rising, indicating bullish pressure. The local trend is upward. We now await confirmation that the price can confidently consolidate above the 1.3525 level.