Trade Review and Japanese Yen Trading Tips

The test of the 147.20 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which, in my view, limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell and missed the strong downward move. However, the bounce from 146.84, which I highlighted in my morning forecast, yielded around 30 points of profit.

Ahead lies the U.S. jobless claims report, consumer credit data, and a speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic. Strong data could put pressure on the yen. The jobless claims report serves as a barometer that reacts sensitively to even minor shifts in the U.S. labor market. Given the recent issues in this area, a rise in claims could weaken the dollar and, in turn, support the yen.

Consumer credit volume, in turn, reflects U.S. consumer sentiment. Growth in consumer borrowing signals confidence in the future and a willingness to spend, which is undoubtedly a positive factor for the U.S. economy and, consequently, for dollar strength.

Raphael Bostic's speech will conclude the day. His comments regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook can quickly shift market sentiment. A hawkish tone indicating the Fed's readiness to keep rates unchanged would serve as a strong catalyst for dollar strength and increased pressure on the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 147.51 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.07 (thicker green line). Around 148.07, I will close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A significant rise in the pair is likely only if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.24 level while MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal. A rise toward 147.51 and 148.07 may follow.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below 147.24 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 146.75, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is likely to increase if the Fed adopts a dovish tone. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.51 level while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal. A decline toward 147.24 and 146.75 may follow.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or manual profit target, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or manual profit target, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for market entry

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when deciding to enter trades. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.