The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months. The upward segment of the trend continues to develop, and the news background still supports all currencies except the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to boost budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have yet to be achieved. Trade deals are progressing with difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" is projected to increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market holds a low opinion of Trump's first six months in office and views his actions as a threat to American stability and prosperity.

At this stage, wave 3 in wave 3 is assumed to be complete. If this is accurate, the instrument has moved on to form wave 4 in wave 3, which may take the form of a three-wave structure. However, the news background will play a significant role in shaping this corrective wave. The currently weak sentiment for the dollar may lead to the formation of a single-wave structure instead.

The EUR/USD pair posted a slight decline on Thursday, and the market remained relatively inactive for most of the day. There was somewhat more movement during the U.S. session, though the overall results fell short of expectations. Economic data began arriving early in the day. The manufacturing and services PMIs for the eurozone and Germany were mixed. There was no significant growth, but also no sharp decline. The index values were almost in line with market expectations. Only the eurozone services PMI came in significantly stronger than forecast. However, market participants paid little attention to these results.

Markets were awaiting the ECB meeting, though it was unclear exactly what they expected from the European regulator. It was known in advance that the ECB did not intend to continue easing monetary policy and would, for the first time in a long while, take a pause. This is exactly what happened. The press release stated that inflation is near its medium-term target and that incoming data is in line with the ECB's projections. The eurozone economy remains resilient despite a series of shocks this year. However, the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to its primary objective—ensuring stable inflation around 2%. Policymakers remain ready to raise or cut interest rates if required by economic data.

All of the above suggests that no significant news reached the market on Thursday. Market participants remain fully focused on trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S., though even a trade deal may have limited impact on EUR/USD. It is difficult to say which side would benefit more. In my view, the U.S. However, Trump already signed a favorable deal with Japan this week, which did not boost demand for the dollar.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build out the upward segment of the trend. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly decisions made by Trump and U.S. foreign policy, where no positive developments have emerged. The targets of the current trend could extend toward the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and potentially higher. A failed breakout attempt at the 1.1572 level, corresponding to the 100.0% Fibonacci level, indicates the market's readiness for new purchases. The expected wave 4 may take the form of a three-wave structure.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often change.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.