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Markets are once again in a state of turbulence. The Japanese yen is fluctuating wildly following the political collapse of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition, which has deepened uncertainty in Japan. Meanwhile, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has surpassed $4 trillion after the US passed its first-ever law regulating stablecoins.
Nvidia is struggling with delays in delivering its H20 chips to China, potentially losing ground to local competitors. And Wall Street is holding its breath ahead of earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla — data that could determine the future direction of the stock indices. In this report, we break down all the key developments and provide trading insights for market participants.
Yen on the brink: Ishiba's political failure rattles the currency market and kicks off a volatility season
A new storm is brewing in the currency markets, and at its center is the Japanese yen, held hostage by internal political drama. This time, the trigger was the election defeat of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition in the upper house: for the first time since 1955, the ruling party no longer controls either chamber of parliament. This is not only a historic event, but one that has significantly heightened political uncertainty and triggered a chain reaction in the financial markets.
What's next for the yen? Why are investors nervous? And what opportunities does this create for traders? Let's break it down.
Following the vote, Ishiba lost his parliamentary majority: the LDP–Komeito coalition secured only 47 seats, three short of the minimum required. Though the prime minister brushed off questions about his resignation with a terse "yes" when asked whether he would remain in power, the markets were not reassured.
His ambitious plans — from wage growth to a GDP target of one quadrillion yen — are now at risk of legislative gridlock. While the upper house doesn't appoint the prime minister, it can still block key legislation, as happened in 2008, when parliament prevented the appointment of a central bank governor during an emerging financial crisis. Ishiba may want to revisit that chapter of Japanese political history.
The coalition's collapse at the polls isn't just numbers — it's a clear sign of mass dissatisfaction. Voters are frustrated with inflation, declining living standards, and are tired of the government's policy of "handout compensation." This has fueled the rise of populists, tax minimalists, and staunch anti-immigration candidates.
The Constitutional Democratic Party won 22 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People gained 17. Even the far-right Sanseito, long considered a political footnote, surged from 1 to 14 seats. This electoral earthquake clearly signals a major transformation in Japanese politics.
Against this backdrop, the currency market reacted predictably. On Monday morning, the yen initially jumped 0.7%, strengthening to 147.79 per dollar. However, the USD/JPY pair later slid back to 148.48 — a sign that the euphoria didn't last.
Investor sentiment resembled a rollercoaster: initial relief that the election didn't trigger a full-blown political collapse and that the ruling coalition retained some influence. But the hangover came quickly: it became clear that governing Japan is now a political minefield. The LDP has lost its ability to unilaterally push through legislation, meaning every initiative will either face complex negotiations or stall in parliament altogether.
This also casts a shadow over foreign policy efforts, especially trade talks with the US, whose deadline is August 1. If no deal is reached, Japan could face 25% tariffs on its exports — a blow that Bloomberg Economics estimates could cost the Japanese economy nearly 0.9% of GDP.
But that's not all: Washington is simultaneously pressuring Tokyo to increase defense spending. The result is a deeply troubling picture for the markets — a politically weakened prime minister, a divided parliament, rising pressure from the US, and a high risk to fiscal stability.
All of this breeds a sense of instability that is beginning to seep into currency markets. The yen — acting as a sensitive barometer — is the first to take the hit.
Many analysts, despite short-term spikes in demand for the "safe-haven currency," remain skeptical. The coalition's loss of parliamentary control, the looming deadlock in US negotiations, weak economic data, and rising bond yields driven by negative factors — all lay the groundwork for further weakening of the yen. Volatility, by most accounts, is just getting started. Markets are already pricing in sharp moves — and likely not in the yen's favor.
In this environment, traders should take a pragmatic approach: any attempt to buy the yen in anticipation of defensive scenarios may prove premature. The main risk isn't tied to a specific level, but to the broader political chaos, which could severely undermine trust in Japanese assets.
Thus, the most rational strategy remains betting on further yen depreciation against the U.S. dollar. Until Tokyo sends clear signals of political and fiscal stability, markets will continue to price in worst-case scenarios, meaning selling the yen appears more logical than hoping for a miraculous rebound.
Crypto market capitalization surpasses $4 trillion amid US stablecoin legislation
Last week, the cryptocurrency industry hit a historic milestone: total market capitalization exceeded $4 trillion for the first time ever. This surge is fueled not only by renewed investor interest but also by a major political shift — the US has passed its first-ever law regulating stablecoins. This marks a new phase in the evolution of digital assets, with immediate effects on the market and long-term implications. This article outlines the key points of the new law, investor reactions, Bitcoin forecasts, and practical recommendations for traders navigating the rapidly evolving crypto landscape.
On July 18, the crypto market received a powerful boost: US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act, the country's first regulatory framework governing the issuance and circulation of stablecoins. The move was a landmark event for the entire industry and had an immediate impact on market dynamics — by the end of the week, total crypto market capitalization had surpassed $4 trillion, setting a new all-time high.
The GENIUS Act lays out clear rules for companies issuing stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. It mandates full backing of these tokens with liquid assets, requires issuers with a market cap above $50 billion to undergo annual audits, and prohibits interest payments to holders.
Moreover, the legislation applies to foreign entities and explicitly bans the use of stablecoins as income-generating instruments. The law is expected to take effect 120 days after the publication of its regulatory guidelines.
The adoption of the GENIUS Act marks a pivotal step toward the institutionalization of the crypto market. It removes key regulatory uncertainty and establishes a well-defined rulebook for stablecoin issuers — something many analysts view as a potential catalyst for further crypto growth.
Notably, Bitcoin is expected to benefit significantly from the new regulatory clarity. Last week, it already hit a new all-time high, surpassing $120,000. In light of these developments, experts increasingly view the $200,000 BTC target by year-end as a realistic scenario, especially given rising institutional demand and growing corporate investor confidence.
The legal recognition of digital assets as part of the financial infrastructure reinforces the idea that cryptocurrencies are transitioning from speculative instruments to a mature, legitimate asset class.
Strategic opportunities for traders amid crypto surge
For traders, this situation presents clear and strategically sound opportunities. In light of the stablecoin legislation and an emerging political consensus in favor of developing the crypto industry, holding long positions in Bitcoin appears to be a reasonable tactic. More aggressive market participants might consider increasing their exposure on price pullbacks, betting on the continuation of the upward trend. Given the scale of the current changes, today's levels may be far from the top.
The key is to understand that this phase of the crypto market is no longer a game of speculative roulette. This is no longer an experiment — it's the emergence of a new financial system. And those who secure their positions before the full-scale institutional influx could become the major beneficiaries of the digital era.
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Nvidia risks losing the Chinese market amid H20 supply disruptions
Last week, Nvidia finally received approval to resume shipments of its H20 chips to China. On the surface, it looked like a win for the company — but the initial optimism was quickly replaced by a sobering reality: chip inventories are nearly depleted, production capacity has been redirected, and restarting manufacturing could take months. In this article, we explore why Nvidia is once again facing roadblocks in China, how it could affect the company's regional position, and what actions traders should consider in the current landscape.
After months of negotiations and uncertainty, Nvidia announced that it had secured export licenses for its H20 chips — the last line of GPUs still permitted under US sanctions. However, behind the official optimism lies a far more complex situation.
According to media reports, Nvidia has already notified Chinese clients that H20 inventory is nearly exhausted, and the production lines previously used at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) have been reassigned to other projects. CEO Jensen Huang stated that a full-scale production restart could take up to nine months — practically an eternity in the high-speed world of tech.
Geopolitical tensions further complicate the situation. Although Nvidia claims licenses will be issued quickly, Washington has yet to provide formal confirmation. The US maintains strict controls over critical tech exports, and the recent warming in US–China dialogue — including the resumption of rare-earth metal supplies and relaxed design material restrictions — appears more like a tactical pause than a genuine policy shift. Meanwhile, China's tech giants — Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, ByteDance, and DeepSeek — remain cut off from a key component of their AI strategies.
In an attempt to ease tensions, Nvidia announced a new GPU, the RTX Pro, designed to meet US export requirements. But so far, the chip exists only on paper and won't address the current supply gap. The company has not provided a clear timeline for H20 production resumption — and according to some sources, may not plan to restart it anytime soon.
The risks for Nvidia are clear: continued uncertainty could result not just in a temporary setback, but in a long-term loss of market share in China. AI chip demand in the region is growing rapidly, and if Western supplies remain unstable, domestic players like Huawei could strengthen their foothold.
For traders, this situation demands cold calculation. In the short term, Nvidia shares are under pressure: supply chain issues, rising competition, and geopolitical risks limit upside potential. However, should positive news emerge — such as licensing approvals, RTX Pro launch, or improved logistics — the stock could quickly rebound. A "wait-and-see with a rebound bias" strategy seems more appropriate here than rushing in.
Wall Street at a crossroads: season of corporate reports to decide market direction
Investors are holding their breath ahead of the key driver of this season — corporate earnings from tech giants. In the coming days, Alphabet and Tesla will report their quarterly results, followed by more than a hundred companies from the S&P 500 index. The market's trajectory — whether the rally continues or a correction sets in — hinges on these releases. This report outlines profitability expectations, index risks, forecasts for Tesla and Alphabet stock, and trading recommendations for the weeks ahead.
The US stock market is entering a critical phase. Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs again, rising 0.59% and 1.51%, respectively. But records can be fragile. This week marks a pivotal point in the earnings season, and it will determine whether the upward trend holds or gives way to a pullback.
All eyes are on Alphabet and Tesla, which will be the first tech giants to report quarterly earnings. In total, over 100 S&P 500 companies are set to release results. And with expectations running high, any deviation from forecasts could trigger significant volatility.
According to FactSet estimates, the combined earnings growth of the Magnificent Seven companies for Q2 is expected to reach 14%, compared to just 3.4% for the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500.
Overall, earnings for the index are projected to grow by 4.8% year-over-year — the most modest increase since the end of 2023. Given such cautious forecasts, market sentiment remains reserved, despite the optimism sparked by Q1 results, which significantly exceeded expectations.
Investor attention is particularly focused on Tesla, which needs to prove it can stabilize its operations after a weak first quarter — revenue dropped 9%, and earnings per share missed consensus by nearly 29%. In Q2, the company delivered 384,122 vehicles — a 13.5% year-over-year decline. Analysts expect revenue of $22.7 billion and EPS of around $0.44, both still below last year's levels. Investors are also closely watching external factors: weakening global EV demand, intensifying competition, and reputational risks tied to Elon Musk's political activity.
Alphabet, meanwhile, is also under pressure. The key question for the market: can Google maintain its search dominance in the ChatGPT era and the accelerating AI race? In Q1, the company reported revenue of $90.2 billion with EPS of $2.81 — beating expectations. An even stronger Q2 result is anticipated — $93.8 billion in revenue. Special focus will be on Google Cloud, which grew 28% last quarter, and how effectively Alphabet is competing with Amazon and Microsoft for AI infrastructure market share.
Other earnings season participants are also in the spotlight — including Verizon, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, RTX, Texas Instruments, and General Motors. Against this backdrop, upcoming speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Michelle Bowman at a banking conference on Tuesday could inject additional market volatility — especially if their tone is more hawkish than investors expect.
Trade risks are also in play: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reminded markets that August 1 is a firm deadline for tariff decisions, and President Trump is reportedly considering new duties of 15–20% on European Union goods.
The key takeaway: the current stock market rally is being driven by expectations — and it is corporate earnings that will determine whether the rally is sustainable. If Alphabet and Tesla meet or exceed forecasts, indices may continue to climb. But if results disappoint, a swift and painful pullback is likely.
For traders, it's especially important right now to monitor not just earnings and revenue figures, but also forward guidance from management. Comments on demand trends, margins, and AI investments will likely be the main drivers of stock movements. In this environment, short-term strategies may alternate with tactical entries on pullbacks.
Alphabet shares are attractive for holding on strong reports, while Tesla is better suited for speculative trades on volatility. Be ready for quick reactions to Fed commentary as well.
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