Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 146.41 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. A short time later, the price tested this level again, but by then MACD was in overbought territory and was gradually returning toward the zero line, allowing Sell Scenario #2 to materialize. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.

Today on the U.S. trading floor, the key events will be the release of weekly U.S. initial jobless claims data and public remarks from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The unemployment data will serve as a key barometer of the U.S. economy, helping assess the strength of the recovery and the need for additional stimulus. Any unexpected deviations from forecasts could provoke a sharp market response and increase volatility in currency pairs. Speeches by Daly and Waller will be closely analyzed for signs of internal disagreements within the FOMC and the future path of monetary policy. Given Waller's reputation as a proponent of a more dovish stance on interest rates, his comments may significantly influence market sentiment. If Fed officials adopt a more hawkish tone, signaling the need to maintain current rate levels, the dollar could receive notable support.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 146.32 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 146.75 (thicker green line). Around 146.75, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 30–35 points). A strong rise in the pair is possible if the upward trend continues. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 146.07 level twice in a row, while MACD is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and could lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward 146.32 and 146.75 may follow.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 146.07 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 145.73, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return if U.S. data comes in weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests the 146.32 level twice in a row, while MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 146.07 and 145.73 may follow.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to monitor overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners:

Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly lead to a total loss of your deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.