Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test of 1.1366 occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid short entry point and resulting in a 25-point drop in the pair.

Disappointing preliminary German consumer confidence data put pressure on the euro in the first half of the day. However, today's U.S. session is also expected to be eventful and dynamic. Special attention will be given to remarks by FOMC member Neel Kashkari, whose comments on interest rates could trigger volatility in the currency market.

At the same time, macroeconomic indicators will be crucial. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index will provide insight into household expectations and willingness to spend—critical for assessing future economic growth. A decline in this index could signal falling consumer spending and a weakening economy.

Equally important will be the Durable Goods Orders report, which reflects business investment activity and expectations for future demand. An increase indicates business confidence and willingness to expand production, while a decline could signal headwinds and reduced investment.

This combination of factors—Kashkari's speech, consumer confidence, and durable goods orders—will form a comprehensive backdrop for sound trading decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and #2 implementations.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro when the price reaches 1.1359 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1400. At 1.1400, I plan to exit the market and initiate a short trade aiming for a 30–35 point retracement from the entry point. Euro growth today is only likely after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Also consider buying the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.1339 level, with the MACD in oversold territory. This would limit the downside and signal a reversal upward. A rise toward 1.1359 and 1.1400 could be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1339 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1307, where I plan to exit the market and reverse the position for a 20–25 point rebound. If today's economic data adds pressure, the pair may continue falling. Important! Before selling, confirm that the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: Also consider selling the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.1359 level with the MACD in overbought territory. This would limit further upside and could trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1339 and 1.1307 could follow.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level, or a price at which profits should be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level, or a price at which profits should be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – Entry decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of key economic reports to avoid being caught in sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't practice money management and trade large positions.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.