The dollar continued to lose ground against the yen in response to Trump's statements that he is willing to make concessions on trade tariffs, as his main goal is to conclude trade agreements, not to harm the economy. These comments, made amid growing concerns about the consequences of the trade war, were perceived by the market as a sign of a slight softening of the U.S.'s hardline stance, which put pressure on the American currency. However, in addition to geopolitical factors, the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair are also influenced by macroeconomic indicators from both countries. The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, as well as expectations regarding the future monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, continue to play an important role. In the near term, traders will closely monitor further statements by U.S. officials on trade matters and key economic data that could influence the outlook for the dollar and the yen. Volatility in the pair will likely persist until there is more clarity about the direction of U.S. trade policy and its consequences for the global economy.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 142.85 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 143.53 (thicker green line). Near 143.53, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip retracement. It is best to return to buying the pair during pullbacks and deeper corrections in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 142.44 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 142.85 and 143.53 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 142.44 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 141.85 level, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound. Selling pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 142.85 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop toward the opposite levels of 142.44 and 141.85 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.