Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday, but the market does not lack news. This week, Donald Trump announced his intention to raise all import tariffs, as none of the countries on his "blacklist" are in a hurry to negotiate or make proposals acceptable to the American leader. In addition, and not without U.S. involvement, Israel carried out a devastating strike on Iran's military and nuclear facilities on Friday night. Then, on Saturday night, Iran responded with an attack on several Israeli cities. The "Iron Dome" failed to intercept hundreds of hostile rockets. What might happen before the market opens on Monday night is hard to imagine, but there is no doubt that traders will react to all this information—or, at the very least, remain in a highly emotional state.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing notable among Monday's fundamental events. No important speeches are scheduled, but significant statements are likely throughout the day. Trump has already said that the U.S. did not participate in the strikes on Iran, but this doesn't matter, as everyone knows America supports Israel.

We believe that the only thing that continues to matter for the market is the trade war, and there are still no signs of its resolution. Also relevant at the moment are the mass riots in the U.S., Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," the presence or absence of progress in trade deal negotiations with 75 countries, new tariffs, hikes in existing tariffs, and the military conflict between Israel and Iran. The dollar may find support amid the confrontation between Israel and Iran, in which the U.S. is directly involved, but even this factor didn't help the dollar much on Friday.

Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may experience turbulent conditions again. We will avoid making any predictions about their movements, as everything will depend on incoming news related to the aforementioned topics. Trading based on technical levels is possible but be prepared for frequent reversals and sharp price movements.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.