On Monday, the EUR/USD pair traded sideways between the levels of 1.1380 and 1.1454, forming a range. Therefore, a rebound from the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380 would favor the euro and further growth toward the 76.4% correction level at 1.1454. A consolidation of the pair's rate below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone would allow for expectations of a continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1320.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous one, while the latest upward wave exceeded the previous peak. Thus, the trend currently remains bullish. The latest news about higher tariffs on steel and aluminum caused the bears to retreat again, while the lack of progress in the U.S.–China negotiations only adds strength to the bulls. The trend can be considered as shifting to bearish only if the pair consolidates below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone.

There was no significant news background on Monday. Certainly, some information came in throughout the day, but it did not attract much attention from traders. The week ahead (starting tomorrow) features the U.S. inflation report. I wouldn't call it extremely important right now, but many in the market expect a significant acceleration in consumer prices amid the ongoing trade war. Inflation currently influences the timing of when the FOMC might resume its monetary policy easing cycle. Let me remind you that Jerome Powell is taking a wait-and-see approach, not wanting to cut rates amid full economic uncertainty. In other words, inflation could rise significantly in 2025, and rate cuts can't be reversed. The Fed would then have to shift policy again and raise rates, something it wants to avoid. Therefore, moderate inflation growth on Wednesday is unlikely to have a major impact on the dollar, and there's little else to look forward to this week.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1495 and rebounded from it, suggesting a potential decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213. A consolidation above this level would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 161.8% at 1.1851. A bullish divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, and a return to the 1.1495 level is possible soon. The trend channel signals that the bullish trend remains in place.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 1,540 long positions and 4,830 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 203,000, while short positions number 120,000. The gap between them (with few exceptions) keeps increasing. Thus, demand for the euro remains, while demand for the dollar does not. The situation remains unchanged.

For 18 consecutive weeks, major players have been cutting short positions and increasing long positions. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is already significant, but Trump's policies are a more powerful factor for traders, as they may lead to a U.S. recession and other long-term structural problems.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

June 10 – no important entries in the economic calendar. Therefore, news flow will not influence market sentiment on Tuesday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from 1.1454 with targets at 1.1374–1.1380 and 1.1320. The first target has been met. A close below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone would enable further selling. I previously advised buying on a rebound from the 1.1374–1.1380 zone with a target at 1.1454. The advice remains the same today.

The Fibonacci grids are plotted from 1.1574 to 1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.