Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 144.68 level earlier in the day occurred when the MACD indicator was still in the selling zone, so buying was not an option.

Today's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index data from the U.S. is unlikely to significantly help the U.S. dollar rise against the Japanese yen. Therefore, I expect trading to remain within the current channel. Trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and a global economic slowdown continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets, with the Japanese yen being one of the main beneficiaries of this trend. Although the NFIB index is certainly of interest to analysts, its impact on the short-term dynamics of USD/JPY is likely limited. It's best to focus on the outcome of U.S.–China trade negotiations and how the dollar reacts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today around the entry point of 144.21 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 144.59 (thicker green line on the chart). At 144.59, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A strong rise in the pair today is more likely following successful negotiations.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 143.96 level twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and may trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward 144.21 and 144.59 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 143.96 (red line on the chart), which may cause a quick drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 143.55, where I will exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Selling pressure may return if the data is weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 144.21 twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward 143.96 and 143.55 is then expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when entering the market. It is best to stay out before key fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can lead to rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—such as the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.