The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted to an upward formation and continues to hold this structure. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar began, the wave structure was a clear downward trend segment. A corrective wave 2 was forming. However, Trump's weekly announcements of various tariffs did their job. Demand for the U.S. dollar started to fall sharply, and now the entire trend segment that began on January 13 has taken on an impulsive upward form.

Currently, wave 2 of 3 is presumably completed. If this is true, then the price increase will continue in the coming weeks and months. However, the U.S. dollar will remain under pressure unless Donald Trump completely reverses his trade policy. The chances of that are extremely low, and at the moment there is no reason to expect a strong rebound for the U.S. currency.

The EUR/USD traded with very low volatility on Monday, but the upward trend segment remains valid. Thus, a resumption of growth could occur at any moment. Many analysts now agree that any new statement from or about Donald Trump could trigger a new wave of U.S. dollar sell-offs. I completely agree with this opinion, however trivial it may sound. All market movements currently revolve around one thing: news from Trump drives market moves; without news from Trump, the market stalls. Even Friday's economic data did not cause a noticeable market reaction. The dollar strengthened by 50 basis points — but what next? That's not enough even for a corrective wave.

In essence, what's dragging the dollar down now is not so much Trump's trade policy as Trump himself. It's been four months since Trump became president, and what has improved? Recall that Trump promised economic prosperity, beneficial trade deals, deportation of all illegal immigrants, and the return of all American factories back to the U.S. What do we have instead? The economy is declining, there are no trade deals, immigrants (both legal and illegal) are staging protests and riots, and American businesses are ready to relocate anywhere but the U.S. Therefore, at this moment, I see no reason for the upward trend to end.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The construction of wave 3 of the upward trend segment has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I am considering buying with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% on the Fibonacci scale, and higher. It should be remembered that de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but at the moment, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

On the larger wave scale, the structure has transformed into an upward one. We are likely to see a long-term set of rising waves, although the news flow from Donald Trump could still turn everything upside down again.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to changes.
2. If you are not confident in the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.